The current stock-market rally is the fourth significant rally in the past six months. As you can see in the chart below, the current rally has not had any more power (a steeper slope) or duration than previous rallies, each of which failed to be sustainable and each of which ended in steep decline. In fact, it was at the end of an even longer, eight-week rally (red circle at top left of chart) on October 9, 2007 that the current downtrend began, reaching a low of -58% thus far. The best-fit channel of the highs and lows of all four rallies is consistent with our expectation of a resumption of the decline to lower lows in the coming weeks.
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Tuesday, May 19, 2009
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